Grim Forecast for 2010 Drink Sales

Beverage alcohol sales on-premise are expected to decline again in 2010, although at a slower rate than is occurring in 2009, according to Technomic. The Chicago-based foodservice and hospitality market research firm announced Monday its forecast of a 2.5 percent decline in on-premise drink sales next year; alcohol sales are expected to finish 2009 down 4.9 percent.

Full-service casual and fine-dining restaurants are expected to experience the most severe declines. Additional numbers developed by Technomic in partnership with GuestMetrics reveal check averages are down 6 percent through the third quarter of 2009.

“Our outlook for alcohol sales is based upon continued weakness in restaurant traffic and further consumer frugality,” stated David Henkes, vice president at Technomic and the director of the firm’s on-premise practice. “The overall share of visits that include alcohol has been on a downward slide for several quarters. While next year won’t be quite as bad, we don’t think we’ll begin to see real growth in consumer spending on alcohol again until 2011.”


2010 Forecast for Overall On-Premise Alcohol Growth (By Segment)

   On-Premise Segment2010 Growth/Decline
Fine Dining-10.4%

Casual Dining

Other Recreation-4.2%
Overall On-Premise-2.5%



2010 Forecast for Overall On-Premise Alcohol Growth (By Type)

Type of Product2010 Growth/Decline
Overall On-Premise-2.5%